Census Note 4: Cowboys and CappuccinoFannie Mae Foundation Census Note 04 (May 2001)*
Overview The rural parts of the American Interior West have been popularly viewed as a relatively homogeneous expanse of arid landscape, supporting sparse populations with an economy based on ranching, mining, and other extractive industries. The explosive development of western Sunbelt metropolitan areas and tourism-driven urban expansion has interrupted that popular view. This note investigates county-level patterns in rural areas of the Interior West. Using consumer and lifestyle data, rural counties are assigned identities of Cowboys (predominantly working class, with less-than college education, with the dominant occupations in extractive industries or in ranching or farming) and Cappuccino (predominantly college-educated professional or service workers and retirees). The note also identifies "American Indian counties"-those that include American Indian Reservation lands and where Indians comprised at least 7.5 percent of the population in 2000, and "unassigned counties," which do not meet any of the above criteria. Counties that fall into the Cowboy category and American Indian category are subsumed into the "Old West" while the Cappuccino counties constitute the "New West." This note investigates how the Old West and New West counties have fared in terms of population growth during the past 50 years. Definition and Background The Interior West is defined as the area east of the Cascade and Sierra Mountains and west of the Great Plains.[1] The area is comprised of 299 counties in 12 states. After removing metropolitan counties, the 247 rural counties that remain are the focus of this analysis. This area is hereafter referred to as the "Rural West." While the Rural West often calls up visions from the cover of Louis L'Amour novels, in fact the area is quite diverse, in terms of both physical geography and human settlement patterns. Perhaps the most dominant physical characteristic of the region is aridity. Generally, this region is so dry that it is impossible to grow commercial crops (or lawn grass) without irrigation. On the other hand, one of the most varying characteristics of the region is elevation. While defined roughly by the major mountain ranges at its eastern and western boundaries, the Rural West also has many subregions with vastly different environments, including the Great Basin, the Colorado Plateau, the Sonoran Desert, and Rocky Mountains. The western United States contains the vast majority of federally owned land outside of Alaska. Including all categories of federal ownership (parks, forests, monuments, Bureau of Land Management holdings, military bases, testing grounds, etc.), the U.S. government owns approximately half of the region under study (Center of the American West 1997). This area continues to be utilized by private citizens-many of the land-intensive industries such as farming, ranching, and mining take place on land leased from the federal government. The bulk of the Rural West-roughly three-quarters of the land area-still qualifies as "frontier" according to the original Census Bureau definition of less than 6 people per square mile (Lang, Popper, and Popper 1997). Rural land in the West is more sparsely settled than rural land in the East. This emptiness and remoteness, along with its rugged geography, are the region's defining features. American Indian tribal lands comprise roughly one-fifth of the Rural West (Center of the American West 1997). This land is owned by individual Indians or by Indian Tribes, but is predominantly held in trust by the U.S. government under the terms defined by historic treaties and agreements between the United States and individual tribes. Trust status can impact economic development on tribal lands because they cannot be sold to or owned by non-Indians. Indian individuals and tribal enterprises have pursued a variety of economic enterprises on tribal lands, however, and in many cases tribal lands have been leased to non-Indian companies for such purposes as mining and ranching. The Rural West appeals to an increasingly diverse array of people-from the yuppie escapee looking to commune with nature to the extreme sport lover who wants unfettered access to its most fragile and remote places. These newcomers and their lifestyles present a strong contrast to the dominant lifestyles of the Old West-where most people either work with the land through farming, ranching, or mining, or provide support to those who do. The Rural West's competing populations and uses are ever shifting. This note seeks to sort out these groups according to lifestyle, to identify counties of the New West versus counties of the Old West so that we can gauge how the lifestyle and politics of the Rural West are changing. Findings The map shows the county-level social geography of the Rural West. Left blank are the metropolitan counties, which are excluded from this analysis. The Cowboy Counties, which dominate the geographic area of the Rural West, are shaded in blue. The American Indian Counties are shaded in green. Together, these counties comprise the Old West. The Cappuccino, or New West, counties are shaded in red. Finally, shaded in purple are the remaining three counties that cannot be easily classified because their social character is not dominated by either the Old or New West. The Old West counties clearly outnumber the New West counties. Although the New West comprises a relatively small area, its counties tend to contain more people than the Old West counties. Although it accounts for less than 10 percent of counties in the Rural West, the New West has a quarter of the region's population. The table shows how the population distribution across the different county types has changed between the 1950 census and the 2000 census.[2].  In 1950, the counties now classified as New West accounted for almost 16 percent of the population of the Rural West. Since mid-century, the share of this group of counties has grown steadily. Contrasting the New West growth is the relative declining share of the Cowboy counties, which dropped from 68 percent of the population in 1950 to 59 percent in 2000. The decline was fairly steady throughout the 50-year period, although it slowed during the past decade. American Indian counties show moderate growth in the past 50 years. In terms of consumption and lifestyle characteristics, however, those places have more in common with the Cowboy counties than with the Cappuccino counties. Yet their growth patterns during the study period are more similar to those of the Cappuccino counties. The American Indian counties' population grew from 12 percent of the Rural West in 1950 to a peak of more than 14 percent between 1970 and 1990, and then decreased in the past decade to just over 13 percent.  Other findings derived from the data shown in the table include the following growth rates during the 1950-2000 period:
Analysis The Rural West grew much faster than the country as a whole, during both the past 50 years and the past decade. It is important to acknowledge, however, that this growth was from a relatively small base. The Rural West contained only 2,657,475 people, or 1.75 percent of the U.S. population in 1950; but the Rural West population grew to 5,863,395 people, or 2.1 percent of the U.S. population, by 2000. New West counties are growing much faster than Old West counties. They now contain more than 25 percent of the population of the Rural West, and the trend suggests that their share will continue to increase for the foreseeable future. Although New West counties have in common their growth rates and their divergence from the Old West, they also display a remarkable diversity. New West counties are scattered throughout the Rural West. While they tend to be near metropolitan areas, that is not universally true. The social character of New West counties varies dramatically. Pitkin County, Colorado is home to Aspen, playground of the rich and famous, while Deschutes County, Oregon contains Bend, a hip town with an outdoor adventure lifestyle. Yavapai County, Arizona, features Sedona, an Arts/New-Age colony. Other New West counties fill in different pieces, but the broad diversity is clearly apparent through just these three examples. The emergence of the New West reflects large-scale shifts in the U.S. economy away from employment in the extractive industries and toward services. The New West has also been gaining on the Old West because the latter's economy now requires fewer employees due in part to gains in productivity. Agribusiness and mining are increasingly mechanized and therefore require less labor. This economic shift pushes former workers in the rural extractive industries toward opportunities in the New West and the region's metropolitan areas. The trend toward this new social geography is likely to continue for many counties in the Rural West, but not for all. Some Old West counties-particularly those dominated by large-scale extractive industries and without the physical attributes that attract new migrants-will likely remain Old West counties into the foreseeable future. On the other hand, many other currently Old West counties will transition, as increasing numbers of technology and professional workers, managers, and retirees take advantage of the improved mobility and communications currently available to reside in places that meet their desires. Clearly, the American Indian counties will continue their association with American Indian Tribal Lands, but the social character of some of those counties will change. The decision of some Indian Tribes to build casinos, resorts, and other destination tourism attractions may spur the growth of the Cappuccino crowd in many cases. Not captured in this analysis of census data is the impact of second and third homes or vacation properties that have been multiplying across the region. Because they are not their owners' primary residences, the owners are not counted as residents of the counties where the homes are built. But to the extent that the new homes and the new infrastructure, such as roads and utilities, required to serve these homes dramatically impact the appearance and stimulate the economy of these counties, the importance of part-time residents should not be overlooked. Finally, there are numerous political implications of an emerging New West. While a full discussion of the implications is beyond the scope of this Census Note, one fact is immediately apparent: The Old West continues to lose political influence. The urban/rural split has been one of the key dynamics driving the politics of the West. Especially contested have been environmental issues, such as water and land management. The cities need the water used in farming and they often want to play in the places where mining occurs. Rural areas resist the loss of high-paying jobs in some extractive industries and resent being forced into lower-paying service jobs that cater to urban vacationers and second-home owners. The rural Old West has been losing political influence for years to the region's large metropolitan areas. Now it faces the prospect of seeing more of its influence drain away through the yuppification of the rural New West. If the trends detailed in this note continue, the Old West may become an increasingly isolated political interest in many states as urbanites and their cappuccino brethren in the Rural West join forces. Authors Kristopher M. Rengert is a Senior Research Fellow in the Innovations division of the Fannie Mae Foundation. Robert E. Lang is Director of Urban and Metropolitan Research at the Fannie Mae Foundation. The authors thank Patrick Simmons, Carol Bell, Karen Danielsen, and Rebecca Sohmer for their comments on this Census Note. * About the Census Notes Series The Fannie Mae Foundation's Census Notes series provides timely analyses of Census 2000 data to stimulate discussion and further research. Although Census Notes are reviewed internally and on an informal basis externally, they have not been subject to the formal process of external peer review that is commonly used for the Foundation's research publications. Therefore, they should be viewed as works in progress and their findings should be considered preliminary. Footnotes 1. This area was identified by the Center of the American
West in its Atlas of the New West. References Center of the American West. 1997. Atlas of the New West. New York: W.W. Norton & Company. Claritas, Inc. 2000. Lang, Robert E., Deborah Epstein Popper, and Frank J. Popper. 1997. Is There Still a Frontier? The 1890 U.S. Census and the Modern American West. Journal of Rural Studies 13:4. United States Census of Population and Housing. 1950-2000. U.S. Bureau of the Census. 2001. Accessed at http://www.census.gov in March 2001. |
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